"What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?" Newsletter: Bitcoin’s Path Forward: ETF Flows, Job Market Impact, and Global Uncertainty

In partnership with

Today's "What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?" newsletter is brought to you by “ Bullseye Trades”!

Trade Smarter with these Free, Daily Stock Alerts

It’s never too late to learn how to master the stock market.

You’ll receive daily trade alerts sent directly to your phone and email detailing the hottest stock picks.

The best part? There’s no cost to join!

Expert insights will be at your fingertips instantly.

Subscribe Now for Free

Welcome to "What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?”

In this week’s edition, we’re bringing you the key highlights from September 30 (Mon) to October 4 (Fri). We’ll provide a concise and insightful analysis of the Bitcoin ETF market, along with a review of Bitcoin’s overall performance during this period.

Weekly Bitcoin ETF in Numbers

• Total AUM of Bitcoin ETFs (as of October 4):

  $57,723,644,376 (Last week: $61,055,414,936)

  ₿925,893 (Last week: ₿930,194)

• Total Weekly Net Flow (September 30~October 4):

  -$3,331,770,560 (Last week: +$3,610,200,673)

  -₿4,300 (Last week: +₿16,672)

• Top Weekly Performer:

  BlackRock (IBIT): +₿2,100

• Worst Weekly Performer:

  Ark 21Shares(ARKB): -₿3,380

1/ Weekly Macro, Bitcoin ETF Market, and Bitcoin Price Dynamics:

Bitcoin Rallies Amid US Jobs Report: ETF Flows and Price Movements

Bitcoin started the week strong, pushing closer to $65,000 after gaining 1.19% on Sunday, October 6, to close at $62,913. The broader crypto market saw a similar 1.32% increase, reflecting positive sentiment following Friday’s US Jobs Report. This bullish momentum, driven by reduced recession fears and tempered expectations of a sharp Fed rate cut, has boosted demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin.

In the ETF space, Bitcoin-spot ETFs saw net inflows of $25.6 million on Friday. While this number may seem modest by historical standards, it marks an important shift in sentiment following recent market volatility. These inflows suggest renewed confidence in BTC, especially as spot ETFs continue to play a crucial role in absorbing excess supply, much like they did earlier in the year when BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust helped stabilize BTC prices by soaking up surplus coins.

2/ Weekly ETF Flow Breakdown:

Ending Holdings on October 4 (Weekly Change):

• IBIT (BlackRock): 367,410 BTC (+2,100 BTC)

• GBTC (Grayscale): 220,606 BTC (-215 BTC)

• FBTC (Fidelity): 177,927 BTC (-2,287 BTC)

• ARKB (Ark 21Shares): 47,304 BTC (-3,380 BTC)

• BITB (Bitwise): 38,999 BTC (-589 BTC)

• BTC (Grayscale Mini): 33,752 BTC (-1 BTC)

• HODL (VanEck): 11,737 BTC (-85 BTC)

• BRRR (Valkyrie): 8,982 BTC (+0 BTC)

• BTCO (Invesco Galaxy): 8,220 BTC (+156 BTC)

• EZBC (Franklin Templeton): 7,104 BTC (+0 BTC)

• BTCW (WisdomTree): 3,708 BTC (+0 BTC)

• DEFI (Hashdex): 144 BTC (+0 BTC)

Total: 925,893 BTC (-4,300 BTC)

The first week of October saw significant turbulence in the Bitcoin ETF market, with over $388.4 million flowing out of the 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs between October 1 and October 3. This shift follows a strong September, where these funds ended the month with more than $1.1 billion in inflows. A key driver of this sudden outflow was heightened geopolitical tension stemming from the Iran-Israel escalation, which caused Bitcoin prices to fall as low as $60,000.

By October 4, positive US payroll data provided some market relief, pushing Bitcoin back up to $62,000, resulting in a modest ETF inflow of $25.59 million. However, this wasn’t enough to counterbalance the heavy outflows from earlier in the week. As a result, spot Bitcoin ETFs finished the week with a net outflow of $301.54 million.

3/ Looking Ahead:

Analysts Point to Selling Pressure

As we look forward, Bitcoin’s price dynamics remain closely tied to ETF flows and broader market factors. Analysts have pointed out that selling pressure isn’t isolated to Bitcoin ETFs alone. Notably, Bitcoin miners offloaded over $143 million worth of BTC since September 29, contributing to recent market volatility.

According to crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Bitcoin has been trading below the short-term holders’ realized price of $63,000—a critical level where many investors bought in. As BTC dips below this price, short-term holders become more inclined to sell, which could further intensify selling pressure.

With ETF inflows providing some mid-week stabilization, it’s crucial for investors to remain cautious. As we approach the US Presidential Election, ETF flows will continue to be a significant driver of Bitcoin’s short-term price trends. Changes in inflows could heavily influence the supply-demand balance, especially with the looming potential for the US government to offload part of its 203,293 BTC stockpile. Political shifts, such as a new administration, may lead to either more favorable or riskier conditions for BTC holders.

Additionally, geopolitical factors, including the escalating conflict in the Middle East, could affect global markets and trigger a flight to safer assets like Bitcoin. Investors should remain vigilant in monitoring these ongoing developments, as they will be critical for managing Bitcoin exposures in the coming weeks.

4/ 🔥What’s Trending Now?:

US Job Market Signals Recession Fears: A Closer Look at JOLTS Data

The U.S. labor market is making waves again. According to the latest Nonfarm Payrolls data, 254,000 jobs were added in September, a figure that exceeded both August’s numbers and market expectations. This has sparked optimism that the Fed’s elusive goal of a “soft landing” might be near.

However, the headline numbers don’t tell the full story. Much of the job growth stemmed from part-time positions, multiple jobholders, and increased employment in the government sector, likely driven by pre-election preparations. These factors, while boosting employment, may not reflect real economic strength and could reverse quickly, leaving room for uncertainty.

Despite the optimistic job numbers, Federal Funds Rate futures dropped, signaling that investors now expect only a 25bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, down from last week’s higher expectations of a 50bps cut. In parallel, yields on U.S. government bonds spiked, with the 10-year yield nearing 4% again.

But we can’t be too confident about a soft landing just yet. A large portion of the September job growth occurred in sectors like restaurants, bars, and public services, areas that often don’t reflect true economic fundamentals. Many jobs were added in government, education, and healthcare, driven by pre-election spending, making these gains potentially short-lived.

Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) paints a more cautious picture. Job openings, hires, and even quits have been on a steady decline (as seen in the attached image), indicating that workers are growing reluctant to leave their jobs, likely out of concern over future economic conditions. At the same time, businesses are slowing down their hiring, signaling that companies are in a holding pattern, bracing for rougher economic conditions ahead.

This trend could reflect that participants in the economy feel the pinch of an impending recession, even if headline numbers temporarily suggest otherwise. As we await further data in October and beyond, the real health of the economy remains uncertain, and investors should stay alert to unexpected shocks in the coming months.

5/ This Week’s Bitcoin Mindset:

Staying the Course in Uncertainty

An important lesson for long-term investors comes from an experiment analyzing the U.S. stock market from 1900 to 2019, which is perfectly applicable to Bitcoin investment today. Let’s break it down:

1. The first investor put $1 into the stock market every month—rain or shine, recession or boom—and ended up with $435,551.

2. The second investor only invested during good economic times, avoiding recessions by selling stocks and saving cash during downturns. This strategy resulted in $257,386.

3. The third investor sold their stocks six months after a recession began and only re-entered the market six months after the recession ended. They ended up with $234,476.

Over 1,428 months, 300 of them were recession periods—about 22% of the time. The first investor, who stayed invested even during recessions, outperformed the other two by 75%. The key takeaway here is staying calm during uncertain times, whether it’s a recession or other market disruptions, leads to greater financial rewards.

As Napoleon once said, “The genius in war is the one who remains calm when everyone else is losing their mind.” This same principle applies to Bitcoin investment.

No matter if there’s talk of a recession coming, or a geopolitical crisis like the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, the best strategy is to continue investing a small amount in Bitcoin regularly. Like the first investor, those who consistently accumulate Bitcoin over time without getting swayed by short-term volatility are likely to come out on top.

This mindset isn’t just about survival; it’s about maximizing profit in the long run, trusting that patience and consistency will be rewarded.

🍫 BITCOIN CRUMBS ON THE TRAIL 🍫

Dive into this week's crunchy bites of important news, serving up the freshest updates and insights from the Bitcoin world.

Here's what's on the menu:

1. Ancient Bitcoin Address Awakens After Lying Low for Over a Decade, Moves $6,113,890 in BTC at 7,222% Profit

   An ancient Bitcoin (BTC) whale has just woken up after a nearly 11-year hibernation. Blockchain tracking bot Whale Alert says on the social...

2. Analyst Says Bitcoin To Keep Outperforming Altcoins, Unveils ‘Big Level’ BTC Needs To Overcome for a Bullish Q4

   Closely followed analyst Benjamin Cowen says that Bitcoin (BTC) will likely continue to outshine altcoins for the foreseeable future.

3. Len Sassaman Is Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto In HBO Documentary? Polymarket Punters See High Probability

   Bettors at Polymarket are eyeing a strong possibility of Len Sassaman getting identified as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) creator Satoshi Nakamoto...

4. Bitcoin: Short-Term Holders on the Brink as $6 Billion Vanishes

   The Bitcoin market is going through a delicate phase, marked by increased volatility and significant capital movements.

5. Grammy-Nominated Rapper Logic Invested $6M In Bitcoin Nearly 4 Years Ago: This Is How Much His Stash Would Be Worth Today

   Grammy-nominated rap star Robert Bryson Hall II, known professionally as Logic, belongs to a niche list of music celebrities with...

That’s it for today; stay tuned for more updates and insights in our next edition!

Stay charged,

SmashFi Team

P.S. - Follow me on X (@brianhoonjong) for daily insights on Bitcoin, wealth, and more! 🚀🐦

Here is my most recent post:

If you found the newsletter enjoyable, then it's time to take the next step and subscribe!

“What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?” Newsletter: Dissecting the daily crypto craze with sharp insights and electrifying updates.

🚀 Excited to share that SmashFi has just launched a powerful new feature for Bitcoin accumulation: Auto-buying! 💡

With the new Auto-buy feature, we’re empowering users to automate their Bitcoin purchases, whether through regular DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) buys or strategically buying during price drops. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, you can now choose your method for growing your Bitcoin stack efficiently! 📈

Here’s how it works:

✅ Regular Buy: Automatically buy Bitcoin at regular intervals.
✅ Low-price Buy: Trigger purchases based on a percentage drop in Bitcoin price.

This update was designed to help our users maximize their Bitcoin holdings ahead of the next bull run. Users can allocate a budget, automate their buys, and stay consistent regardless of market volatility. 📊

We built this feature to give everyone, no matter their experience, the tools to accumulate Bitcoin strategically.

If you haven’t already, give it a try and multiply your Bitcoin holdings with ease. Let’s continue to build and grow together! 💪

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for the brainy and the brave. It's for informational purposes only and not a substitute for investment advice. Always do your own research.