"What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?" Newsletter: Weak Economy Could Spark Reversal for Bitcoin ETFs Soon

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Welcome to "What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?”

In this week's edition, we explore the key highlights from June 17th to June 21st. We provide a concise and engaging analysis of the Bitcoin ETF market and review the overall performance of the Bitcoin market during this period.

Weekly Bitcoin ETF in Numbers

• Total AUM of Bitcoin ETFs (as of June 21st):

  $55,652,430,428 (Last week: $57,451,791,579)

  ₿867,329 (Last week: ₿876,036)

• Total Weekly Net Flow (June 17th~21st):

  -$1,670,160,411 (Last week: -$3,520,480,203)

  -₿8,689 (Last week: -₿8,478)

• Top Weekly Performer:

  Wisdomtree (BTCW): +₿30

• Worst Weekly Performer:

  Fidelity (FBTC): -₿4,155

1/ Total AUM and ETF Price Dynamics:

Weekly AUM Overview:

As of June 21st, the total Assets Under Management (AUM) is $55,652,430,428 (Last week: $57,451,791,579). This represents a decrease, continuing the downtrend.

Total Bitcoin held by Bitcoin ETFs has continued its decreasing trend, shrinking from 884,513 BTC on June 7th to 867,329 BTC on June 21st. A total of 17,184 BTC outflowed from the Bitcoin ETF market during this period.

Bitcoin's spot price was significantly impacted by this trend in the Bitcoin ETF market, sliding from $69,324 to $62,314 on June 24th, marking a -10.11% retreat over 17 days.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong ETF AUM Overview:

As of June 21st, the total Assets Under Management (**AUM**) was $250,636,000, representing a decrease of $21,728,000 from a week ago.

The amount of Bitcoin held by the three Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs decreased from 4,068 BTC to 3,861 BTC, marking a reduction of 207 BTC over the week.

In a related development, an exchange-traded fund investing in Bitcoin was listed on Australia’s main stock market for the first time, adding to a wave of similar launches this year in the US and Hong Kong. The VanEck Bitcoin ETF debuted Thursday on the exchange operated by ASX Ltd. with a seed investment of about A$985,000 ($657,000). The product is a feeder fund for the $647 million VanEck Bitcoin Trust in the US. ASX’s first Bitcoin ETF tapped $1.3 million in volume on its first trading day.

2/ BTC Holdings Weekly Flow:

Ending Holdings on June 21 (WoW Change):

• GBTC (Grayscale): 278,502 BTC (-2,710 BTC)

• IBIT (BlackRock): 305,614 BTC (+23 BTC)

• FBTC (Fidelity): 167,374 BTC (-2,220 BTC)

• ARKB (Ark 21Shares): 46,792 BTC (-4,155 BTC)

• BITB (Bitwise): 37,288 BTC (-550 BTC)

• HODL (VanEck): 9,984 BTC (-113 BTC)

• BRRR (Valkyrie): 8,372 BTC (-1 BTC)

• BTCO (Invesco Galaxy): 6,945 BTC (-31 BTC)

• EZBC (Franklin Templeton): 6,177 BTC (+29 BTC)

• BTCW (WisdomTree): 1,320 BTC (+30 BTC)

• DEFI (Hashdex): 178 BTC (+0 BTC)

Total: 867,329 BTC (-8,689 BTC)

🇭🇰 Hong Kong ETF Holdings on June 21 (WoW Change):

• ChinaAMC (9042): 1,990 BTC (-95 BTC)

• Harvest Global (9439): 732 BTC (-132 BTC)

• Bosera Hashkey (9008): 1,139 BTC (+20 BTC)

Total: 3,861 BTC (-207 BTC)

• Note: All data sources are from the Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows.

3/ Looking Ahead:

Bitcoin ETFs Face Worst Performance Yet, but a Reversal Could Be Imminent

This week, the Bitcoin ETF market experienced significant turbulence, with U.S.-listed ETFs posting $900 million in net outflows. Thursday marked the fifth consecutive day of outflows, making it the worst performance since mid-April. Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw over $900 million in losses for the week, with Grayscale's GBTC and Fidelity's FBTC leading the outflows, while BlackRock's IBIT was the only ETF to record net inflows. This trend of outflows began on June 10th, following a period of substantial inflows that added more than $4 billion in the previous 19 days of trading.

Despite this ongoing outflow, there is potential for a reversal soon. May retail sales data showed a 0.1% rise, weaker than the expected 0.2%. Excluding autos, sales declined by 0.1%. This weaker-than-expected retail performance, coupled with moderating gas prices, has impacted consumer spending, which only rose 2.3% year-over-year. This sluggish retail growth has led traders in the fed funds futures market to increase their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.

The weaker retail sales data indicate a slowing U.S. economy, which could push the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. If the economy shows further signs of weakness, the Fed might cut rates to avoid a recession. This potential easing of monetary policy could lead to a reversal of the current outflow trend in the Bitcoin ETF market, as lower interest rates typically boost investment in riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's actions, with market pricing suggesting the possibility of two rate reductions this year, though Fed officials have indicated a likelihood of just one. The retail data has even prompted some traders to price in about a 23% chance of three cuts this year. If the Fed does move to cut rates, it could provide the necessary support for Bitcoin ETFs to recover from the recent outflows.

4/ 🔥What’s Hot This Week?:

The Elephant Has Entered the Room - Michael Dell

Michael Dell, the CEO of Dell Technologies (DELL), recently hinted at an interest in Bitcoin. This came after he retweeted a post from Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor, the executive chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR). Dell started by tweeting, "Scarcity creates value," to which Saylor replied, "Bitcoin is Digital Scarcity." Dell then shared an image of Sesame Street's Cookie Monster devouring Bitcoin instead of cookies.

Saylor has led MicroStrategy to buy 226,331 Bitcoin worth $15 billion over the past four years, making him a major Bitcoin advocate. While only a few companies have followed suit, Dell's interest could signal a shift.

Dell Technologies had $34.6 billion in assets as of May 3, with $5.8 billion in cash. Although Bitcoin isn't on their books yet, Dell’s strong financial performance sets the stage for a possible investment. Dell Technologies’ stock has surged nearly fivefold since December 2018, and its Class C stock has jumped from $40 to $145 per share in the past 18 months.

Analyst Joe Consorti suggests that Bitcoin could benefit companies like Dell Technologies, especially with the rise of cost-cutting AI technologies. He argues that even a small Bitcoin investment could yield significant returns. For example, if Dell Technologies put just 1% of its $5.8 billion cash into Bitcoin, that $58.3 million could potentially grow to $118.7 million in a year, based on Bitcoin's historical returns.

Saylor’s MicroStrategy has already seen huge profits from its Bitcoin strategy. Despite some top investors like Warren Buffett avoiding Bitcoin, Consorti believes that ignoring it could mean missing out on big gains. "Bitcoin is the single best asset for outsized risk-adjusted returns over any multi-year timeframe," he says. "You're simply not working in the best interest of your shareholders if you ignore this without reason."

5/ This Week’s Bitcoin Mindset:

Hold On, Long-Term Holders Aren't Selling

Looking at Glassnode’s latest data, it's clear: Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are not selling. Short-term holders are sending around +17.4k BTC/day to exchanges, a sharp drop from the +55k BTC/day peak when Bitcoin hit $73k in March. Meanwhile, LTHs are barely moving their holdings, with just over 1k BTC/day in inflows.

LTHs are sending less than 0.006% of their total holdings to exchanges. This shows they're holding firm, waiting for higher or lower prices to make a move. More coins are being sold at a profit (+11k BTC) than at a loss (+8.2k BTC), with average profits around 7.5x larger than losses.

The takeaway? Long-Term Holders believe in Bitcoin's value and aren't selling. As HODLers, we should take a page from their book. Hold onto your investments and wait for the right market conditions. The current market setup favors holding over selling, with the potential for significant gains as demand eventually drives prices higher. Follow the lead of those who truly understand the market—hold on and trust in Bitcoin's long-term potential.

6/ 🐦 Hot Tweet of the Week

1) Time Dilation: The Ultimate HODL Strategy

2) Tick-Tock: Wealth Is About Time, Not Just Money

3) Drinks and Satoshis: The Bitcoiners' Guide to Splitting the Bill

🍫CRYPTO CRUMBS ON THE TRAIL 🍫

Dive into this week's crunchy bites of important news, serving up the freshest updates and insights from the crypto world.

Here's what's on the menu:

1. Bitcoin offers 'economic immortality,' will reach $10M per coin — Michael Saylor

   Michael Saylor said Bitcoin will reach $10 million per coin during a recent podcast.

2. Japan’s Metaplanet Wants to Buy Another $6M Bitcoin

   The firm will purchase over $6.2 million worth of bitcoin using proceeds from an upcoming bond issuance, adding to its BTC coffers.

3. Ethereum gas prices, Bitcoin miner revenue both approach record lows

   Ethereum's median gas price fell below 3 gwei for the first time since 2020 as Bitcoin miners continue to feel the impact of the latest...

4. Bitcoin (BTC) Will Reach $1.0 Million Within Next Year, Samson Mow Predicts

   Bitcoin permabull Samson Mow expects BTC to hit $1 million within the year 2025.

5. Should I invest in Nvidia stocks or Bitcoin?

   Bitcoin has already massively underperformed Nvidia. So, to get rich, is it better to buy Nvidia stocks or BTC?

That’s it for today; stay tuned for more updates and insights in our next edition!

Stay charged,

SmashFi Team

P.S. - Follow me on X (@brianhoonjong) for daily doses of insightful updates on Bitcoin ETFs and beyond! 🚀🐦

Learn how to become an “Intelligent Investor.”

Warren Buffett says great investors read 8 hours per day. What if you only have 5 minutes a day? Then, read Value Investor Daily.

Every week, it covers:

• Value stock ideas - today’s biggest value opportunities 📈

• Principles of investing - timeless lessons from top value investors 💰

• Investing resources - investor tools and hidden gems 🔎

You’ll save time and energy and become a smarter investor in just minutes daily–free! 👇

Subscribe now with one click.

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“What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?” Newsletter: Dissecting the daily crypto craze with sharp insights and electrifying updates.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for the brainy and the brave. It's for informational purposes only and not a substitute for investment advice. Always do your own research.