"What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?" Newsletter: First Time Ever ETFs Holding Over 900k BTC!

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Welcome to "What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?”

In this week's edition, we will cover the key highlights from July 15th to July 19th. We provide a concise and engaging analysis of the Bitcoin ETF market and review the overall performance of the Bitcoin market during this period.

Weekly Bitcoin ETF in Numbers

• Total AUM of Bitcoin ETFs (as of July 19th):

  $60,543,368,721 (Last week: $51,184,643,808)

  ₿905,312 (Last week: ₿887,421)

• Total Weekly Net Flow (July 15th~19th):

  +$9,358,724,913 (Last week: +$2,022,446,864)

  +₿17,890 (Last week: +₿17,337)

• Top Weekly Performer:

  BlackRock (IBIT): +₿10,914

• Worst Weekly Performer:

  Grayscale (GBTC): -₿868

1/ Total AUM and ETF Price Dynamics:

Weekly AUM Overview:

As of the latest report, the total Assets Under Management (AUM) in USD terms came back above $60 billion on July 19th, marking the first time since June 10th. Additionally, the AUM in Bitcoin terms surpassed 900,000 BTC for the first time since the inception of the Bitcoin ETF in the U.S., highlighting another significant milestone.

This substantial growth in AUM was largely driven by a weekly surge in Bitcoin prices of over 13% following the incident involving former President Trump on July 13th. The increased likelihood of Trump’s re-election appears to be positively impacting Bitcoin prices, contributing to the significant rise in Bitcoin ETF AUM. These developments underscore renewed investor confidence in Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs as a strategic asset class under the potential for Trump’s second term in the Oval Office.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong ETF AUM Overview:

As of last Friday, the total Assets Under Management (AUM) for the three Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs is $317,973,000 USD, up from the previous week’s $282,122,000 USD. In Bitcoin terms, the total AUM is 4,974 BTC, slightly down from the peak of over 5,019 BTC on July 17th but still higher than the previous week’s 4,940 BTC.

The Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF alone accumulated 35 BTC, while the ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF and Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF both experienced either no inflow or negative flow. Despite the recent fluctuation, this trend indicates a significant and growing institutional interest in Bitcoin within the Hong Kong market.

2/ BTC Holdings Weekly Flow:

Ending Holdings on July 19 (WoW Change):

• IBIT (BlackRock): 327,190 BTC (+10,914 BTC)

• GBTC (Grayscale): 271,794 BTC (-868 BTC)

• FBTC (Fidelity): 180,702 BTC (+3,707 BTC)

• ARKB (Ark 21Shares): 49,318 BTC (+1,554 BTC)

• BITB (Bitwise): 40,500 BTC (+1,079 BTC)

• HODL (VanEck): 10,973 BTC (+537 BTC)

• BRRR (Valkyrie): 8,878 BTC (+147 BTC)

• BTCO (Invesco Galaxy): 7,704 BTC (+532 BTC)

• EZBC (Franklin Templeton): 6,728 BTC (+261 BTC)

• BTCW (WisdomTree): 1,347 BTC (+27 BTC)

• DEFI (Hashdex): 178 BTC (+0 BTC)

Total: 905,312 BTC (+17,890 BTC)

🇭🇰 Hong Kong ETF Holdings on July 19 (WoW Change):

• ChinaAMC (9042): 2,105BTC (-1 BTC)

• Harvest Global (9439): 742 BTC (+0 BTC)

• Bosera Hashkey (9008): 2,128 BTC (+35 BTC)

Total: 3,993 BTC (+34 BTC)

• Note: All data sources are from the Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows.

3/ Looking Ahead:

Rising US Unemployment Boosts Chances of September Fed Rate Cut

Recent data shows a notable rise in U.S. unemployment, with initial jobless claims reaching their highest level since August 2023, and continuing claims at their highest since November 2021. This increase, driven in part by Hurricane Beryl’s impact on states like Texas, indicates a softening labor market. The uptick in claims, combined with a higher unemployment rate of 4.1%, suggests that the labor market is cooling.

Economists predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise throughout 2024, reaching 4.5% by year-end. This cooling labor market, coupled with recent moderation in inflation, strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. A rate cut could provide a significant boost to risk assets, including Bitcoin.

As interest rates decrease, the attractiveness of Bitcoin and other risk assets typically increases, as investors seek higher returns. This scenario could lead to increased institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs, driving further growth in AUM and potentially boosting Bitcoin prices. The prospect of a rate cut and its positive impact on risk assets underlines the importance of monitoring economic indicators closely in the coming months.

4/ 🔥What’s Trending Now?:

Bitcoin: The Reliable Alternative in a Digital World

In the wake of the recent global IT outage, the vulnerabilities of a cashless society have been starkly highlighted. Businesses worldwide were disrupted, unable to process electronic payments due to the failure of Microsoft systems. However, this incident serves as a reminder that we don’t need to revert to a cash-only society because we have Bitcoin.

Unlike traditional banking systems, which rely heavily on cloud servers, Bitcoin operates on a peer-to-peer (P2P) server network. This decentralized structure involves over 19,000 individual nodes across the globe, ensuring robust and resilient operations. Impressively, Bitcoin has maintained 100% uptime for 11 years since 2013, demonstrating its reliability even when significant portions of the world’s cloud infrastructure fail.

Last week’s Microsoft cloud server outage halted many digital transactions, but Bitcoin continued generating blocks seamlessly. This resilience showcases Bitcoin as a dependable alternative to traditional payment systems. Its decentralized nature ensures that no single point of failure can bring down the network, providing a stark contrast to the centralized systems that underpin most current financial transactions.

In essence, Bitcoin offers a secure, reliable solution that doesn’t depend on centralized servers. As the world grapples with the challenges of a digital economy, Bitcoin’s decentralized network provides a stable and continuous operational backbone, proving itself as a viable alternative to both cash and traditional electronic payment systems.

5/ This Week’s Bitcoin Mindset:

Bitcoin MVRV coming back above 2

The attached chart illustrates the MVRV Z-Score for Bitcoin, a crucial metric that helps gauge the market’s profitability. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score recently climbed back above 2, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment. Historically, a Z-Score above 2 has often marked the beginning stages of a bull market.

When examining the previous cycles, we can observe that similar MVRV movements have consistently preceded major bull runs. For instance, in the periods of 2013, 2017, and 2020, the MVRV Z-Score crossing this threshold was a strong indicator of impending exponential price increases. This pattern suggests that we may be at the cusp of another significant upward trend.

The current MVRV Z-Score aligns with other positive market signals, reinforcing the belief that Bitcoin is entering a new growth phase. As we transition into this potential bull market, the increasing institutional interest and favorable macroeconomic conditions could further propel Bitcoin’s value.

Investors should take note of this critical indicator as it underscores the bullish momentum building in the Bitcoin market. With the MVRV Z-Score maintaining its position above 2, it’s an exciting time for Bitcoin holders, marking what could be the early stages of another remarkable bull run.

6/ 🐦 Hot Tweet of the Week

1) Elon Musk Feeling Bullish

2) Even If the Internet Goes Down, Bitcoin’s Chillin’

🍫CRYPTO CRUMBS ON THE TRAIL 🍫

Dive into this week's crunchy bites of important news, serving up the freshest updates and insights from the crypto world.

Here's what's on the menu:

1. Bitcoin Traders Brace For 'Fat Tails' as Focus Shifts to Trump's Nashville Bitcoin Conference Speech

   Speculation is high that Trump will announce a bigger role for BTC in the financial system, triggering a parabolic rise in the...

2. Bitcoin price 'explosive move' puts old $69K all-time high in sight

   Bitcoin aims to close the week up more than 10% as BTC price and crypto market optimism races higher.

3. BTC price 8% off all-time high — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

   Bitcoin launches into Ether ETF week with BTC price trading just 8% from all-time highs.

4. Bitcoin Indicator Pointing Towards ‘Deep Value’ for BTC, According to ARK Invest Analysts

   Analysts at ARK Invest say that several on-chain indicators are currently reflecting positive market health for Bitcoin (BTC).

5. Michael Saylor Reacts to Musk’s Apparent Bitcoin Endorsement

   MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor has already taken note of Elon Musk's new profile picture that prominently features the so-called...

That’s it for today; stay tuned for more updates and insights in our next edition!

Stay charged,

SmashFi Team

P.S. - Follow me on X (@brianhoonjong) for daily doses of insightful updates on Bitcoin ETFs and beyond! 🚀🐦

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“What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?” Newsletter: Dissecting the daily crypto craze with sharp insights and electrifying updates.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for the brainy and the brave. It's for informational purposes only and not a substitute for investment advice. Always do your own research.