Welcome to another insightful edition of the "What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?" newsletter. In this issue, we dissect the ETF market's dynamics from April 22nd to April 26th, providing a detailed examination of asset movements and shifts in market perception. Here's what you can expect in this week's analysis:

• AUM and ETF Price Dynamics: Analyzing AUM and ETF price changes to understand market dynamics.

• BTC Holdings Weekly Flow: Reviewing weekly BTC holding fluctuations to track investor trends.

• Economic and Geopolitical Influences: Assessing how economic and geopolitical factors affect ETF values.

• Trends in GBTC Holdings: Examining GBTC outflows and their impact on the Bitcoin market.

Join us as we dive deep into the data and extract critical insights from the past week!

1/ Total AUM and ETF Price Dynamics:

Weekly AUM Overview:

The total Assets Under Management (AUM) for the 11 ETFs showcased notable movement between April 19th and April 26th. On April 19th, the total AUM was approximately $53.84 billion. By April 26th, this amount had decreased to approximately $53.24 billion. This indicates a decrease of about $0.60 billion in the total AUM across all ETFs in one week. This reduction may reflect continuing challenges in market liquidity and investor confidence.

Daily ETF Price Observations:

For the top five ETFs by AUM, the following changes were noted in their respective ETF prices per share from April 22nd to April 26th:

1. GBTC (Grayscale): The ETF price per share decreased from $59.31 to $56.84, reflecting a decline.

2. IBIT (BlackRock): This ETF saw its price per share reduce from $37.80 to $36.39, indicating a decrease.

3. FBTC (Fidelity): Experienced a decrease in price from $58.06 to $55.84, mirroring the downward trend observed across major ETFs.

4. HODL(VanEck): This ETF's price per share declined from $75.08 to $72.29.

5. ARKB(Ark 21Shares): Noted a decrease in its price per share from $66.34 to $63.87, aligning with the general negative performance trend observed in other major ETFs.

2/ BTC Holdings Weekly Flow:

Ending Holdings on April 26th (Weekly Change):

• GBTC (Grayscale): 298,445 BTC (-6,525 BTC)

• IBIT (BlackRock): 274,462 BTC (+855 BTC)

• FBTC (Fidelity): 153,603 BTC (+285 BTC)

• ARKB (Ark 21Shares): 43,706 BTC (+529 BTC)

• BITB (Bitwise): 33,888 BTC (+229 BTC)

• HODL (VanEck): 9,277 BTC (+57 BTC)

• BRRR (Valkyrie): 7,614 BTC (-312 BTC)

• BTCO (Invesco Galaxy): 6,055 BTC (+37 BTC)

• EZBC (Franklin Templeton): 5,133 BTC (+174 BTC)

• BTCW (WisdomTree): 1,227 BTC (+1 BTC)

• DEFI (Hashdex): 178 BTC (0 BTC)

Comparative Insight on Total Net Flows:

Total BTC Holdings Net Flow

• From April 15th to April 19th: -5,177 BTC

  From April 22nd to April 26th: -4,659 BTC

During the week of April 15th to April 19th, the ETFs experienced a net outflow of 5,177 BTC. This substantial outflow marked a significant shift from potentially previous positive inflows, indicating a cooling off or a strategic rebalance by some investors amid varying market conditions.

Moving to the following week, April 22nd to April 26th, the net outflow slightly decreased, totaling 4,659 BTC leaving the ETFs. Although slightly less than the previous week, this outflow still suggests a strong bearish sentiment or a collective strategic shift among investors towards greater liquidity or alternative investments.

3/ GBTC(Greyscale)'s Outflow Trend:

During the analysis period from April 22nd to April 26th, GBTC (Grayscale) continued to show a decreasing trend in its BTC holdings, reflecting a continued reduction in Bitcoin exposure.

Starting with 304,970 BTC on April 22nd, the holdings dropped further to 298,445 BTC by April 26th. This represents a total reduction of 6,525 BTC over the week. The ongoing decrease may suggest persistent selling pressure or a redistribution of assets, possibly to other investment opportunities.

This pattern could indicate a bearish sentiment still prevailing among Bitcoin investors, potentially in response to broader market conditions or shifts in investor strategy towards cash liquidity or diversification amid ongoing market uncertainties.

On the other hand, the latest data suggests that the rate of outflows is less severe than in the previous periods, indicating that the market might be stabilizing.

• Note: All data sources are from the Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows.

4/ Looking Ahead:

With Bitcoin ETFs experiencing significant outflows, including Grayscale's GBTC surpassing $17 billion, the landscape for cryptocurrency investments is shifting. As inflows dry up amidst macroeconomic changes and rising Treasury Yields, investor sentiment may be waning.

Multiple Bitcoin ETFs, including Ark 21Shares, Fidelity, Valkyrie, and Bitwise, report substantial outflows, signaling a broader trend. BlackRock's IBIT ETF's consecutive zero inflows suggest diminishing fresh capital entering the market.

The recent market correction following weak US GDP growth data underscores volatility, impacting both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. As business activity cools and inflation concerns persist, access to liquidity may become constrained, further impacting ETF flows.

Looking forward, the slowdown in ETF inflows is anticipated to continue, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical events. Future fund inflows will likely depend on the integration of spot Bitcoin ETFs into broader macro funds.

What’s Hot This Week?

1/ Spot-Bitcoin ETFs on the Horizon for the Australian Securities Exchange

Key Highlights:

• ASX to Approve Spot-Bitcoin ETFs: The Australian Securities Exchange is expected to green-light its first spot-Bitcoin ETFs by the end of 2024.

• Key Applicants: DigitalX, VanEck, and BetaShares are among the frontrunners aiming to launch these products.

• Regional Momentum: Following the U.S., Hong Kong's recent approvals spur further interest across Asia.

The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), which dominates about 90% of Australia’s equity market, is poised to introduce its inaugural spot-Bitcoin ETFs by the end of 2024, according to a recent Bloomberg report. This development, sourced from insiders who prefer anonymity, signals a significant shift in the region's financial landscape.

Several key players are already positioning themselves in anticipation of this move. DigitalX made its application public in February, followed closely by VanEck, which reasserted its commitment by resubmitting an application last month. Additionally, Sydney-based BetaShares has indicated its efforts to launch a similar product on the ASX.

Amidst this bustling anticipation, the ASX remains tight-lipped, reiterating its stance of not commenting on specific investment product applications, as stated in a previous response to a CoinDesk inquiry. However, the momentum for Bitcoin ETFs is not confined to Australia alone. Following the U.S. approvals, Hong Kong has also stepped into the spotlight by officially sanctioning the first batch of spot bitcoin and ether ETFs.

Adding to the narrative, Monochrome Asset Management, another Australian firm, has opted for Cboe Australia—a smaller rival of the ASX—to list its spot bitcoin ETF, citing the platform's expansive reach across Asia and its financial expertise.

The unfolding events depict an exciting chapter for investors and market watchers, signaling a robust growth in the acceptance and integration of cryptocurrency-based products within mainstream financial markets.

2/ Bitcoin ETF Slowdown: A Brief Interlude, Not a Downturn

Key Highlights:

• Temporary Pause: Bernstein's analysis suggests the slowdown in Bitcoin ETF inflows is a short-term pause, necessary for setting up compliance frameworks on investment platforms.

• Price Stability: Post-halving, Bitcoin remains range-bound with no clear price momentum, indicating stability.

• Long-Term Outlook: Despite the current slowdown, Bernstein forecasts a Bitcoin cycle high of $150,000 by 2025, driven by strong ETF demand.

• Healthy Mining Cycle: The mining sector continues to strengthen post-halving, with fees normalizing to 10% of miners' revenues.

In their latest research report, analysts from brokerage firm Bernstein offer reassurance amid concerns over Bitcoin ETF inflows' recent deceleration. They describe this phase as merely a temporary pause, not the start of a worrying trend. This pause is viewed as crucial for investment platforms to develop robust compliance frameworks necessary for Bitcoin ETFs—a step before these products can be widely offered on private bank platforms, wealth advisory services, and more brokerage platforms.

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra emphasize that the world's leading cryptocurrency remains price stable, showing no strong momentum either way post-halving. They highlight a "natural gestation period" for Bitcoin to become a standard recommendation for portfolio allocation, during which platforms are expected to establish the necessary compliance structures.

Despite the current pause, Bernstein maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, reiterating their prediction of a cycle high of $150,000 by 2025, bolstered by unprecedented demand for ETFs. Furthermore, the report notes that the Bitcoin mining sector remains robust, with leading players continuing to consolidate their market shares. Bitcoin network fees have also stabilized at a healthy 10% of miners' revenues following the recent halving, which reduced the rate of new Bitcoin supply. This adaptation period is viewed as an essential step towards broader acceptance and integration of Bitcoin ETFs into mainstream financial services.

🐦 Hot Tweet of the Week

1/ What is the significance of the Asian currency war on Bitcoin?

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🍫CRYPTO CRUMBS ON THE TRAIL 🍫

Dive into this week's crunchy bites of important news, serving up the freshest updates and insights from the crypto world.

Here's what's on the menu:

1. This bitcoin miner and Nvidia AI cloud partner's stock could go up 50%, Berenberg says

2. Chart Veteran Who Predicted Bitcoin’s 2018 Collapse Says the Bull Market May Be Over

3. Bitcoin Whale Aggressively Accumulates $282,380,000 Worth of BTC During Correction: On-Chain Data

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5. Bitcoin Price Falls as Technical Signs Flash Red. Why Cryptos Could Have a Rough Week.

Today's meal🥩🥛: Fueling up with natural foods and steering clear of ultra-processed options. Stay healthy, eat clean!

Stay charged,

SmashFi Team

P.S. - Follow me on X (@brianhoonjong) for daily insights on Bitcoin! 🚀🐦

“What Happened to Bitcoin ETF?” Newsletter: Dissecting the daily crypto craze with sharp insights and electrifying updates.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is for the brainy and the brave. It's for informational purposes only and not a substitute for investment advice. Always do your own research.